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dc.contributor.authorLi, L
dc.contributor.authorZhang, L
dc.contributor.authorXia, J
dc.contributor.authorGippel, CJ
dc.contributor.authorWang, R
dc.contributor.authorZeng, S
dc.date.accessioned2018-10-31T02:08:56Z
dc.date.available2018-10-31T02:08:56Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.identifier.issn0920-4741
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11269-015-0957-3
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/100577
dc.description.abstractSustainable management of water for human uses and maintaining river health requires reliable information about the future availability of water resources. We quantified the separate and combined impacts of climate and land cover changes on runoff for the historical record and for modelled future scenarios in the upper Han River and Luan River, supply and demand zones respectively of the middle route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China, the world’s largest inter-basin water transfer project. We used a precipitation-runoff model, averaged multiple climate model predictions combined with three emissions scenarios, a combined CA-Markov model to predict land cover change, and a range of statistical tests. Comparing baseline with 2050: climate change would cause an average reduction in runoff of up to 15 % in the upper Han River and up to 9 % in the Luan River catchment; a scenario involving increased forest cover would reduce runoff by up to 0.19 % in the upper Han River and up to 35 % in the Luan River; a scenario involving increased grass cover would increase runoff by up to 0.42 % in the upper Han River and up to 20 % in the Luan River. In the lower Luan River, the mean annual flow after 1998 fell to only 17 % of that of the baseline period, posing a serious threat to river health. This was explained largely by extraction of surface water and groundwater, rather than climate and land use change.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom2563
dc.relation.ispartofpageto2579
dc.relation.ispartofissue8
dc.relation.ispartofjournalWater Resources Management
dc.relation.ispartofvolume29
dc.subject.fieldofresearchFreshwater Ecology
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode060204
dc.titleImplications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
gro.hasfulltextNo Full Text
gro.griffith.authorGippel, Chris


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