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  • The effect of heat waves on mortality and effect modifiers in four communities of Guangdong Province, China

    Author(s)
    Zeng, Weilin
    Lao, Xiangqian
    Rutherford, Shannon
    Xu, Yanjun
    Xu, Xiaojun
    Lin, Hualiang
    Liu, Tao
    Luo, Yuan
    Xiao, Jianpeng
    Hu, Mengjue
    Chu, Cordia
    Ma, Wenjun
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Chu, Cordia M.
    Rutherford, Shannon
    Year published
    2014
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Heat waves have been reported to be associated with increased mortality; however, fewer studies have examined the effect modification by heat wave characteristics, individual characteristics and community characteristics. Methods This study investigated the effect of extreme heat on mortality in 2 urban and 2 rural communities in Guangdong Province, China during 2006–2010. The effect of extreme heat was divided into two parts: main effect due to high temperature and added effect due to prolonged heat for several consecutive days. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to calculate the relative risk with consideration ...
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    Heat waves have been reported to be associated with increased mortality; however, fewer studies have examined the effect modification by heat wave characteristics, individual characteristics and community characteristics. Methods This study investigated the effect of extreme heat on mortality in 2 urban and 2 rural communities in Guangdong Province, China during 2006–2010. The effect of extreme heat was divided into two parts: main effect due to high temperature and added effect due to prolonged heat for several consecutive days. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to calculate the relative risk with consideration of lag days and potential confounding factors. Separate models were further fit by individual characteristics (cause of death, age and gender) and heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration and timing), and potential effect modification of community characteristics was examined using a meta-regression, such as educational levels, percentage of the elderly, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP). Results The overall main effects (ER = 8.2%, 95% CI: 3.4%, 13.2%) were greater than the added effects (ER = 0.0%, 95% CI: − 3.8%, 4.0%) on the current day. The main effect peaked at lag0–2, and was higher for the two rural areas compared to the two cities, for respiratory compared to cardiovascular mortality, for those ≥ 75 years old and for females. The modifying effects of heat wave characteristics and community characteristics on mortality were not statistically significant. Conclusion This study suggests the effects of extreme heat were mainly driven by high temperature, which can be modified by some individual characteristics.
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    Journal Title
    Science of the Total Environment
    Volume
    482-483
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.049
    Subject
    Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/102406
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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