An Integrative Approach to Tourism Demand Forecasting

Abstract

Tourism demand forecasting has become an end in itself, with the forecasting process being divorced from the tourism management activities it is supposed to serve. This article argues that a combination of techniques should be employed in order to facilitate a more meaningful dialogue between analysts and those responsible for tourism management decisions. The emphasis placed on econometric modelling has the potential to create significant blind spots in our vision of the future. The failure of this approach to enhance our understanding of phenomena which are more amenable to modes of analysis based on alternative paradigms, such as chaos theory, has contributed to mixed results in the past. An approach to forecasting and strategic planning being developed by the Australian Tourist Commission is used as a case study to illustrate aspects of the integrative approach that is advocated.