Politics Beyond Anwar: What's New?

Abstract

During the 1990s, many observers suggested that among the countries of Southeast Asia, Malaysia was one whose authoritarian politics worked. Its regime was stable, ethnic relations were peaceful, its economy was growing rapidly, Islamic forces were pragmatically managed, and corrupt practices were kept within bounds. In addition, much uncertainty over succession - the Achilles' heel of most authoritarian regimes - appeared to have been resolved. Whereas President Suharto of Indonesia, for example, had refused to groom any successor for fear that his power would dissipate, Malaysia's prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, had for the past decade been cultivating a deputy. And the figure he had chosen, Anwar Ibrahim, seemed poised to extend Mahathir's achievements, thus taking them to new heights. In this way, the Vision 2020 agenda of full economic development would flower in a wider "Asian renaissance". By the end of 1997, however, Malaysia's fortunes had changed, rudely interrupting this benign progress. Most notably, the country's economy, like many others in East Asia, came shuddering to a halt. In this situation, severe elite-level tensions were exposed, with Mahathir now dismissing Anwar from office and setting in train his deputy's arrest. In turn, social forces mobilized on Anwar's behalf. And in learning from mass actions in neighbouring Indonesia, they coordinated their protests over the internet, confronted the police boldly, then took to forming new social movements and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) - developments that were applauded by many foreign leaders and the international press. In beginning their campaign, these forces pressed simply for greater government accountability. But later, as the country moved towards state-level and parliamentary elections, it seemed that these contests might be used as the instrument by which to make the regime more competitive. Put simply, pressures emerged not only for reformed authoritarianism, but for more fully democratic procedures. This article enumerates these pressures that have arisen since Anwar Ibrahim's ouster. It begins by placing them in theoretical context, identifying reasons for thinking that a transition to fuller democracy might take place. However, in then investigating the empirical record, this article argues that such political change is by no means inevitable. As a guide, this section draws parallels with the economic and political crises that gripped Malaysia a decade ago, a period in which elite-level divisions and social upsurge created similar pressures, only to abate amid economic recovery.