Bayesian Network and System Thinking Modelling to Manage Water-Related Health Risks from Extreme Events

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Author(s)
Bertone, E
Sahin, O
Richards, R
Roiko, RA
Year published
2015
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
A combination of Bayesian Network (BN), System Dynamics (SD) and participatory modelling to develop a risk assessment tool for managing water-related health risks associated with extreme events has been developed. The risk assessment tool is applied to the Prospect water filtration plant system, main source of potable water for the Sydney metropolitan region. Conceptual models were developed by the stakeholders around the key indicator parameters of turbidity, water colour and cryptosporidium. These three conceptual models were and used for developing separate BN and SD models. Here we present the development of a BN designed ...
View more >A combination of Bayesian Network (BN), System Dynamics (SD) and participatory modelling to develop a risk assessment tool for managing water-related health risks associated with extreme events has been developed. The risk assessment tool is applied to the Prospect water filtration plant system, main source of potable water for the Sydney metropolitan region. Conceptual models were developed by the stakeholders around the key indicator parameters of turbidity, water colour and cryptosporidium. These three conceptual models were and used for developing separate BN and SD models. Here we present the development of a BN designed to understand the risk of extreme events on the ability to provide drinking water of a desired quality. The model has undergone development and preliminary parameterization via two participatory workshops. However, its development is an ongoing process with the next stage involving supplementing the `expert opinion' used to parameterize the model so far with `hard' data.
View less >
View more >A combination of Bayesian Network (BN), System Dynamics (SD) and participatory modelling to develop a risk assessment tool for managing water-related health risks associated with extreme events has been developed. The risk assessment tool is applied to the Prospect water filtration plant system, main source of potable water for the Sydney metropolitan region. Conceptual models were developed by the stakeholders around the key indicator parameters of turbidity, water colour and cryptosporidium. These three conceptual models were and used for developing separate BN and SD models. Here we present the development of a BN designed to understand the risk of extreme events on the ability to provide drinking water of a desired quality. The model has undergone development and preliminary parameterization via two participatory workshops. However, its development is an ongoing process with the next stage involving supplementing the `expert opinion' used to parameterize the model so far with `hard' data.
View less >
Conference Title
2015 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT (IEEM)
Volume
2016-January
Copyright Statement
© 2015 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Subject
Water Resources Engineering
Expert Systems
Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety