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  • An Integrated Modelling Approach to Climate Change and Malaria Vulnerability Assessments

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    OnyangoPUB1819.pdf (474.5Kb)
    Author(s)
    Achieng, OE
    Sahin, O
    Chu, C
    Brendan, M
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Chu, Cordia M.
    Sahin, Oz
    Mackey, Brendan
    Onyango, Esther
    Year published
    2016
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies providing evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures resulting in adverse impacts on vulnerable communities. This risk is significant in East Africa whereby current research shows an expansion of malaria into the highland areas due to changes in temperature and rainfall. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria and the risk posed to vulnerable communities, there is insufficient understanding of the ...
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    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies providing evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures resulting in adverse impacts on vulnerable communities. This risk is significant in East Africa whereby current research shows an expansion of malaria into the highland areas due to changes in temperature and rainfall. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria and the risk posed to vulnerable communities, there is insufficient understanding of the complexity of factors influencing the spread of the disease at the community level. This paper considers assessment of risk of malaria infection due to climate change, from systems perspective. Drawing upon published literature, we apply systems approach to propose a detailed conceptual model that illustrates causal relationships between the multiple drivers of malaria transmission in line with the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommendations for risk and vulnerability assessments. We suggest that this framework can be applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement and in conjunction with Bayesian Belief Network to models to: explore how policy and management interventions can reduce the risk of malaria infection and; provide targeted adaptation strategies that incorporates both the scientific and the community perspectives.
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    Conference Title
    Environmental Modelling and Software for Supporting a Sustainable Future, Proceedings - 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, iEMSs 2016
    Volume
    4
    Publisher URI
    https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference/2016/Stream-D/102/
    Copyright Statement
    Copyright remains with the author(s) 2016. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. For information about this conference please refer to the conference’s website or contact the author(s).
    Subject
    Medical and Health Sciences not elsewhere classified
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/124197
    Collection
    • Conference outputs

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