Gillard’s Clean Energy Future Package: Paradigm Change Minus Valence Equals Failure

Abstract

It is now twenty years since Peter Hall wrote his influential Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State. He argued ideas are important in political and institutional change, developed within what he called policy paradigms. Only rarely do ideas and the social learning they create lead to what Hall called third order paradigm change, which radically alters policy and leads to adapted goals and policy instruments. The Gillard government’s Clean Energy Future Package (CEFP) was bold, challenging, and radical in the context of Australian reform and it was a good example of Hall’s third order policy paradigm change. The Abbott government, elected on an ‘axe the tax’ platform, quickly repealed the CEFP. Despite its repeal, the CEFP remains an example of rare, difficult-to-achieve third order change. The policy, however, failed to engender the emotional appeal or valence (policy ‘stickiness’) within the community. This paper, therefore, investigates the interplay between two key variables for understanding policy change—paradigms and valence. It concludes that policy-makers attempting third order change must consider the issue of valence if their policies are to endure