A mathematical analysis of an exchange-traded horse race betting fund with deterministic payoff betting strategy for institutional investment to challenge EMH

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Author(s)
Hopf, Craig George Leslie
Tularam, Gurudeo Anand
Year published
2015
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This paper's primary alternative hypothesis is Ha: profitable exchange-traded horserace betting fund with deterministic payoff exists for acceptable institutional portfolio return-risk. The primary hypothesis challenges the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis applied to horse race wagering. An optimal deterministic betting model (DBM) is derived from the existing stochastic model fundamentals, mathematical pooling principles, and new theorem. The exchange-traded betting fund (ETBF) is derived from force of interest first principles. An ETBF driven by DBM processes conjointly defines the research's betting strategy. Alpha ...
View more >This paper's primary alternative hypothesis is Ha: profitable exchange-traded horserace betting fund with deterministic payoff exists for acceptable institutional portfolio return-risk. The primary hypothesis challenges the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis applied to horse race wagering. An optimal deterministic betting model (DBM) is derived from the existing stochastic model fundamentals, mathematical pooling principles, and new theorem. The exchange-traded betting fund (ETBF) is derived from force of interest first principles. An ETBF driven by DBM processes conjointly defines the research's betting strategy. Alpha is excess return above financial benchmark, and invokes betting strategy alpha that is composed of model alpha and fund alpha. The results and analysis from statistical testing of a global stratified data sample of three hundred galloper horse races accepted at the ninety-five percent confidence-level positive betting strategy alpha, to endorse an exchange-traded horse race betting fund with deterministic payoff into financial market.
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View more >This paper's primary alternative hypothesis is Ha: profitable exchange-traded horserace betting fund with deterministic payoff exists for acceptable institutional portfolio return-risk. The primary hypothesis challenges the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis applied to horse race wagering. An optimal deterministic betting model (DBM) is derived from the existing stochastic model fundamentals, mathematical pooling principles, and new theorem. The exchange-traded betting fund (ETBF) is derived from force of interest first principles. An ETBF driven by DBM processes conjointly defines the research's betting strategy. Alpha is excess return above financial benchmark, and invokes betting strategy alpha that is composed of model alpha and fund alpha. The results and analysis from statistical testing of a global stratified data sample of three hundred galloper horse races accepted at the ninety-five percent confidence-level positive betting strategy alpha, to endorse an exchange-traded horse race betting fund with deterministic payoff into financial market.
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Journal Title
Cogent Mathematics
Volume
2
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2015. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Subject
Financial Mathematics
Optimisation