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dc.contributor.authorSimshauser, Paul
dc.contributor.authorNelson, Tim
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-01T22:27:39Z
dc.date.available2018-11-01T22:27:39Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.identifier.issn0313-5926
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.eap.2015.01.002
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/141258
dc.description.abstractOn Australia’s east coast over the period 2013–2016, we forecast that aggregate demand for natural gas will increase three-fold, from 700 PJ to 2100 PJ per annum, while our forecast of system coincident peak demand increases 2.4 times, from 2790 TJ to 6690 TJ per day. This extraordinary growth is being driven by the development of three Liquefied Natural Gas plants at Gladstone, Queensland. In this article, we present our dynamic partial equilibrium model of the interconnected gas system and produce forecasts with daily resolution. We find that absent additional supply-side development, unserved load events will remain more than a theoretical possibility in the short-term due to inter-temporal spatial constraints. In the long-term, with appropriate policy settings in place, additional supplies will be brought to market, albeit at higher than historical prices.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom69
dc.relation.ispartofpageto88
dc.relation.ispartofjournalEconomic Analysis and Policy
dc.relation.ispartofvolume45
dc.subject.fieldofresearchEconomics not elsewhere classified
dc.subject.fieldofresearchEconomics
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode149999
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode14
dc.titleThe Australian east coast gas supply cliff
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
gro.facultyGriffith Business School, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics
gro.hasfulltextNo Full Text
gro.griffith.authorSimshauser, Paul E.
gro.griffith.authorNelson, Tim A.


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