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  • Australian evidence on the role of interregional flows, production capacity, and generation mix in wholesale electricity prices and price volatility

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    Author(s)
    Higgs, Helen
    Lien, Gudbrand
    Worthington, Andrew C
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Worthington, Andrew C.
    Higgs, Helen
    Year published
    2015
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    Abstract
    This paper examines the impact of interregional flows, production capacity and generation mix, encompassing both fossil fuels (black and brown coal and natural gas) and renewables (hydropower and wind power), on daily wholesale electricity price volatility across the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market from January 2006 to June 2012. One objective is to examine the volatility impacts of daily interregional energy flows when regions are exporting and importing electricity and daily slack (excess daily capacity) produced by differences in generation capacity and actual generation. ...
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    This paper examines the impact of interregional flows, production capacity and generation mix, encompassing both fossil fuels (black and brown coal and natural gas) and renewables (hydropower and wind power), on daily wholesale electricity price volatility across the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market from January 2006 to June 2012. One objective is to examine the volatility impacts of daily interregional energy flows when regions are exporting and importing electricity and daily slack (excess daily capacity) produced by differences in generation capacity and actual generation. Another is to gain insights into the emergent effects of policy and industry developments regarding the choice of generation on price volatility. Using Student panel common and fixed-effects generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) specifications, we find that the type of generation exerts a strong influence on prices and price volatility, with prices increasing for open-cycle gas turbine and hydro generation and decreasing for black coal generation. We also find increasing price volatility for black coal, open-cycle gas turbine, and hydro generation, and decreasing price volatility for combined-cycle gas turbine generation. Interregional flows appear to exert no significant influence on prices or price volatility, while generation slack tends to reduce prices, but has no effect on price volatility.
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    Journal Title
    Economic Analysis and Policy
    Volume
    48
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2015.11.008
    Copyright Statement
    © 2015 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.
    Subject
    Economics
    Other economics not elsewhere classified
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/141597
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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