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dc.contributor.authorCarmignani, Fabrizio
dc.contributor.authorKler, Parvinder
dc.description.abstractAnecdotal accounts of the geographical spread of war inevitably involve Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. But is conflict spillover effectively stronger in SSA than elsewhere? To answer this question, we estimate models of civil war onset comparing SSA against the rest of the world (RoW). We find that in SSA a neighbour at war increases the probability of civil war onset by at least 1%. This is not negligible, considering that the unconditional probability of civil war onset is 1.1% in the global sample and 1.5% in the SSA sample. The spillover effect in the RoW is three times smaller than in SSA and, in general, statistically not different from zero. The results are robust to changes in the definition of neighbourhood and the inclusion of regional variables in the estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Finally, we provide evidence that refugee inflows and the artificial separation of ethnic groups explain part, but not all, of the spillover effect in SSA.
dc.publisherElsevier BV * North-Holland
dc.relation.ispartofjournalEconomic Systems
dc.subject.fieldofresearchApplied Economics not elsewhere classified
dc.subject.fieldofresearchApplied Economics
dc.subject.fieldofresearchBusiness and Management
dc.titleThe geographical spillover of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
gro.facultyGriffith Business School, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics
gro.description.notepublicThis publication has been entered into Griffith Research Online as an Advanced Online Version.
gro.hasfulltextNo Full Text
gro.griffith.authorCarmignani, Fabrizio
gro.griffith.authorKler, Parvinder S.

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