Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators

Abstract

This study examines the sustainability of current account deficits (CADs) and validity of intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) for 24 OECD countries. While the OLSEG, ML system, and OLSGH estimates of the model do not provide support, the GMM, DOLS, and NLLS estimates provide consistent support for the sustainability of CADs across most countries. The estimates of the model with multiple structural breaks reinforce the sustainability of CADs. The results provide dominant support for the sustainability of CADs and validity of IBC across most countries. The CADs are only short-run phenomena and are balanced by future surpluses.