Bhutanese Refugees in Nepal: Anticipating the Impact of Resettlement

Abstract

When refugees resettle to new countries, populations left behind are affected. These include remaining camp residents, political leaders and local residents. This report presents a preliminary forecast of the impacts to remaining populations of the mass resettlement of Bhutanese refugees currently residing in Nepal. In summary, the forecast is mixed for the remaining population, with some aspects of life expected to improve while other elements may worsen. As resettlement moves forward, morale has wavered between hopeful and tense. There have been violent and even fatal clashes between refugees who oppose resettlement and those who support it. This has resulted in a highly charged camp atmosphere in which hope, resentment, and anxiety have all played significant roles. A lack of information about the resettlement process is compounded by the reluctance of many refugees to show an interest in resettlement for fear of being attacked. As large numbers of refugees depart from the camps, common resources (such as firewood) will be more readily available and camp facilities less overcrowded. At the same time, the likely depletion of educated, skilled and experienced workers could reduce the quality of camp services, particularly in the health and education sectors. Overseas remittances will likely increase as refugees resettle to richer countries. However, informal income from regional or local work may decrease as educated and skilled refugees resettle early. Spates of violent attacks associated with the advent of resettlement in and near the refugee camps represent a clear deterioration of the security environment. In response, the Government of Nepal has brought in a larger police presence, which may reduce overall crime but could simultaneously lead to a more restrictive environment in which refugees cannot travel outside of the camps. Bhutanese political leaders fear that resettlement will dilute the efforts of refugees who continue to promote political reform in Bhutan, as their cause loses its urgency and its constituents. Conversely, resettlement may lead to an injection of resources and media attention for political leaders. For local residents living near the camps in Nepal, the departure of large numbers of refugees will decrease competition for local resources and employment. In the long-term, however, resettlement will lead to a contraction of the local economy and a reduction in the pool of available human capital. The social, economic and political impacts of resettlement have the potential to improve conditions for remaining populations and/or exacerbate current problems. This report concludes with policy and program responses designed to reinforce the positive aspects of resettlement while mitigating the negative consequences.