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  • Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines

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    WarePUB1470.pdf (985.3Kb)
    Author(s)
    Paynter, Stuart
    Yakob, Laith
    Simoes, Eric AF
    Lucero, Marilla G
    Tallo, Veronica
    Nohynek, Hanna
    Ware, Robert S
    Weinstein, Philip
    Williams, Gail
    Sly, Peter D
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Ware, Robert
    Year published
    2014
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    Abstract
    We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the ...
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    We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.
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    Journal Title
    PLoS One
    Volume
    9
    Issue
    2
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0090094
    Copyright Statement
    © 2014 Paynter, et. al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
    Subject
    Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/172356
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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