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  • Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige book

    Author(s)
    Sadique, Shibley
    In, Francis H.
    Veeraraghavan, Madhu
    Wachtel, Paul A.
    Griffith University Author(s)
    In, Francis H.
    Veeraraghavan, Madhu
    Year published
    2013
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning points as it often provides an early indication of future economic activities. During economic upswings, positive tone becomes more prominent and negative tone becomes less prominent. In addition, this study is the first to document that Beige Book tone affects stock market volatility and trading volume.This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning points as it often provides an early indication of future economic activities. During economic upswings, positive tone becomes more prominent and negative tone becomes less prominent. In addition, this study is the first to document that Beige Book tone affects stock market volatility and trading volume.
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    Journal Title
    Journal of Macroeconomics
    Volume
    37
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.01.004
    Subject
    Applied Economics not elsewhere classified
    Economic Theory
    Applied Economics
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/172413
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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