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dc.contributor.authorBurrows, Michael T
dc.contributor.authorSchoeman, David S
dc.contributor.authorRichardson, Anthony J
dc.contributor.authorMolinos, Jorge Garcia
dc.contributor.authorHoffmann, Ary
dc.contributor.authorBuckley, Lauren B
dc.contributor.authorMoore, Pippa J
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Christopher J
dc.contributor.authorBruno, John F
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Carlos M
dc.contributor.authorHalpern, Benjamin S
dc.contributor.authorHoegh-Guldberg, Ove
dc.contributor.authorKappel, Carrie V
dc.contributor.authorKiessling, Wolfgang
dc.contributor.authorO'Connor, Mary I
dc.contributor.authorPandolfi, John M
dc.contributor.authorParmesan, Camille
dc.contributor.authorSydeman, WilliamJ
dc.contributor.authorFerrier, Simon
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, Kristen J
dc.contributor.authorPoloczanska, Elvira S
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-05T04:27:47Z
dc.date.available2018-01-05T04:27:47Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.identifier.issn0028-0836
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/nature12976
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/173590
dc.description.abstractThe reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans1, are not yet fully understood or appreciated2,3. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global4 and local scales5. Here we use the velocity of climate change6,7 to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the ‘business as usual’ climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5)8 representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherNature Publishing
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom492
dc.relation.ispartofpageto495
dc.relation.ispartofissue7493
dc.relation.ispartofjournalNature
dc.relation.ispartofvolume507
dc.subject.fieldofresearchEcological Applications not elsewhere classified
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode050199
dc.titleGeographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
gro.hasfulltextNo Full Text
gro.griffith.authorBrown, Chris J.


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