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  • Estimating influenza-related hospital admissions in older people from GP consultation data

    Author(s)
    Scuffham, PA
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Scuffham, Paul A.
    Year published
    2004
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This study seeks to determine the association between general practice (GP) consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospital admissions, and to estimate the number of excess hospitalisation due to ILI epidemics, for two age-groups: 51-65 years and >65 years. Methods: Structural time series models (STSM) with stochastic trend and seasonal components were developed. Weekly data from Switzerland for 1987 to 1996/1997 were used. Hospital admission rates for pneumonia and influenza (P&I) and other respiratory conditions (ORC) were regressed against GP consultation rates. Excess hospitalisations were calculated as ...
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    This study seeks to determine the association between general practice (GP) consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospital admissions, and to estimate the number of excess hospitalisation due to ILI epidemics, for two age-groups: 51-65 years and >65 years. Methods: Structural time series models (STSM) with stochastic trend and seasonal components were developed. Weekly data from Switzerland for 1987 to 1996/1997 were used. Hospital admission rates for pneumonia and influenza (P&I) and other respiratory conditions (ORC) were regressed against GP consultation rates. Excess hospitalisations were calculated as the difference between predicted hospital admissions during influenza epidemics and predicted hospital admissions using a baseline GP consultation rate. Results: Excess admission rates were substantially higher in the oldest age-group (51-65 years: P&I 4.42, ORC 2.14; >65 years: P&I 6.30, ORC 4.74 per 10,000 population per year). The models explained between 43 and 76% of the variation in hospital admissions. The seasonal patterns were stable over the 10 years modelled and the variances of the trends were small.
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    Journal Title
    Vaccine
    Volume
    22
    Issue
    21-22
    Publisher URI
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0264410X
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2003.12.022
    Subject
    Biological sciences
    Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences
    Biomedical and clinical sciences
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/21523
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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