Space time dynamics of insurgent activity in Iraq

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Author(s)
Townsley, Michael
Johnson, Shane D
Ratcliffe, Jerry H
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2008
Metadata
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This paper describes analyses to determine whether there is a space-time dependency for insurgent activity. The data used for the research were 3 months of terrorist incidents attributed to the insurgency in Iraq during U.S. occupation and the methods used are based on a body of work well established using police recorded crime data. It was found that events clustered in space and time more than would be expected if the events were unrelated, suggesting communication of risk in space and time and potentially informing next event prediction. The analysis represents a first but important step and suggestions for further analysis ...
View more >This paper describes analyses to determine whether there is a space-time dependency for insurgent activity. The data used for the research were 3 months of terrorist incidents attributed to the insurgency in Iraq during U.S. occupation and the methods used are based on a body of work well established using police recorded crime data. It was found that events clustered in space and time more than would be expected if the events were unrelated, suggesting communication of risk in space and time and potentially informing next event prediction. The analysis represents a first but important step and suggestions for further analysis addressing prevention or suppression of future incidents are briefly discussed.
View less >
View more >This paper describes analyses to determine whether there is a space-time dependency for insurgent activity. The data used for the research were 3 months of terrorist incidents attributed to the insurgency in Iraq during U.S. occupation and the methods used are based on a body of work well established using police recorded crime data. It was found that events clustered in space and time more than would be expected if the events were unrelated, suggesting communication of risk in space and time and potentially informing next event prediction. The analysis represents a first but important step and suggestions for further analysis addressing prevention or suppression of future incidents are briefly discussed.
View less >
Journal Title
Security Journal
Volume
21
Issue
3
Publisher URI
Copyright Statement
© 2008 Palgrave Macmillan. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Security Journal. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Security Security Journal. 21(3), pp.139-146. United Kingdom: Palgrave Macmillan Ltd] is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.sj.8350090
Subject
Criminology