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  • An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952-2000

    Author(s)
    Narayan, Paresh
    Peng, Xiujian
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Narayan, Paresh
    Year published
    2006
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the ...
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    This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.
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    Journal Title
    Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies
    Volume
    4
    Issue
    2
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1080/14765280600737039
    Subject
    Applied Economics
    Other Economics
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/26947
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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