Superannuation: Switching and Roulette Wheels

Abstract

Abstract: Purpose - To investigate the effects of switching strategies between investment options for Australian superannuation funds. Design/methodology/approach - Outlines the switching arrangements available, refers to relevant research and explains Bauer and Dahlquist's (2001) 'roulette wheel' approach to evaluating switching strategies. Applies it to 1985-2005 monthly returns data for Australian and global investment opportunities including property and blended options. Explains the methodology and considers consistency with other research. Findings - Although Australian equities gave negative returns for 89 of the 252 months, an Australian equity buy-and-hold strategy gave better returns than 63% of possible switching paths. Buy-and-hold was also superior to switching between Australian property and T-bills etc., confirming Sharpe's (1975) idea that investors need a 70% to 80% forecast accuracy for switching to work. Research limitations/implications - Calls for more research on superannuation funds' default investment options and switching effects, including switching at the margin. Originality/value - Provides evidence that buy-and-hold is usually better than switching strategies in the context of Australian superannuation funds.