Socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia
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To assess the socio-environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus (BFV) transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia. Data on BFV notified cases, climate, tidal levels and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA) in six coastal cities, Queensland, for the period 1992-2001 were obtained from the relevant government agencies. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the socio-environmental predictors of BFV transmission. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, high and low tide were statistically significantly associated with BFV incidence at lags 0-2 months. The fitted negative binomial regression models indicate a significant independent association of each of maximum temperature (b = 0.139, P = 0.000), high tide (b = 0.005, P = 0.000) and SEIFA index (b = )0.010, P = 0.000) with BFV transmission after adjustment for confounding variables. The transmission of BFV disease in Queensland coastal areas seemed to be determined by a combination of local social and environmental factors. The model developed in this study may have applications in the control and prevention of BFV disease in these areas.
Tropical Medicine and International Health
© 2009 Wiley-Blackwell Publishing. This is the author-manuscript version of the paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.The definitive version is available at www.interscience.wiley.com
PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES