Complexity provides a better explanation than probability for confidence in syllogistic inferences
Abstract
Bayesian rationality is an important contribution to syllogistic inference, but it has limitations. The claim that confidence in a conclusion is a function of informativeness of the max-premise is anomalous because this is the least probable premise. A more plausible account is that confidence is inversely related to complexity. Bayesian rationality should be supplemented with principles based on cognitive complexity.
Journal Title
Behavioral and Brain Sciences
Volume
32
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2009 Cambridge University Press. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version.
Subject
Probability Theory