dc.contributor.author Schandl, Heinz dc.contributor.author Hatfield-Dodds, Steve dc.contributor.author Wiedmann, Thomas dc.contributor.author Geschke, Arne dc.contributor.author Cai, Yiyong dc.contributor.author West, James dc.contributor.author Newth, David dc.contributor.author Baynes, Timothy dc.contributor.author Lenzen, Manfred dc.contributor.author Owen, Anne dc.date.accessioned 2017-06-02T00:19:53Z dc.date.available 2017-06-02T00:19:53Z dc.date.issued 2016 dc.identifier.issn 0959-6526 en_US dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.100 en_US dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10072/338659 dc.description.abstract In recent decades economic growth and increased human wellbeing around the globe have come at the cost of fast growing natural resource use (including materials and energy) and carbon emissions, leading to converging pressures of declining resource security, rising and increasingly volatile natural resource prices, and climate change. We ask whether well-designed policies can reduce global material and energy use, and carbon emissions, with only minimal impacts on improvements in living standards. We use a novel approach of combined economic and environmental modelling to assess the potential for decoupling for 13 world regions and globally. We apply a production (territorial) and consumption approach to discuss regional differences in natural resource use and carbon emissions across three stylized policy outlooks: a reference case with no significant changes to environment and climate policies; a ‘high efficiency’ outlook involving a global carbon price rising from $50 to$236 (constant price) per tonne of CO2 between 2010 and 2050 and improvements in resource efficiency (rising from 1.5% historically to between 3.5% and 4.5% in the scenarios); and a ‘medium efficiency’ outlook midway between the ‘no change’ and ‘high’ outlooks. We find that global energy use will continue to grow rapidly under all three scenarios from 17 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) in 2010 to between 30 and 36 billion toe. Carbon emissions would be considerably lower with a global carbon price, less than half the level of the reference case (29–37 billion tonnes of CO2 instead of 74 billion tonnes) and also material use would grow much more slowly under a carbon price and significant investment to increase resource efficiency (95 instead of 180 billion tonnes of materials). We find that OECD economies have significant potential to reduce their material throughput and carbon emissions with little impact on economic growth, and that developing economies such as China could expand their economies at much lower environmental cost. Globally, the effects of very strong abatement and resource efficiency policies on economic growth and employment until 2050 are negligible. Our study suggests that decarbonization and dematerialization are possible with well-designed policy settings and would not contradict efforts to raise human wellbeing and standards of living. The research demonstrates the usefulness of scenarios for unpacking environmental and economic outcomes of policy alternatives. The findings have important implications for future economic opportunities in a highly resource efficient and low carbon global economy to set human development and achieving the sustainable development goals on a more resilient path. en_US dc.description.peerreviewed Yes en_US dc.language English en_US dc.publisher Elsevier en_US dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom 45 en_US dc.relation.ispartofpageto 56 en_US dc.relation.ispartofjournal Journal of Cleaner Production en_US dc.relation.ispartofvolume 132 en_US dc.subject.fieldofresearch Environmental Science and Management not elsewhere classified en_US dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode 050299 en_US dc.title Decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth: scenarios for energy use, materials use and carbon emissions en_US dc.type Journal article en_US dc.type.description C1 - Peer Reviewed (HERDC) en_US dc.type.code C - Journal Articles en_US gro.hasfulltext No Full Text gro.griffith.author West, Jim
﻿

## Files in this item

FilesSizeFormatView

There are no files associated with this item.

### This item appears in the following Collection(s)

• Journal articles