Vulnerability of infrastructure to Sea Level Rise: A combined outranking and system-dynamics approach
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In order to develop an adaptation plan for Sea Level Rise (SLR), coastal councils often conduct hazard line studies to investigate present and expected future risks on coastal stretches (e.g., beaches) that harbour various types of infrastructures (e.g., roads, sewerage system, water supply system, electricity, telecom etc). Interdependencies of infrastructure components and systems are frequent with disruption of services in one, likely to cascade through the infrastructure network and produce a compound effect on users. To help decision-makers at a local council in prioritising management actions, we developed an analytical vulnerability assessment tool called EVA-INFRA (Environmental Vulnerability Assessment for infrastructures) which starts from the IPCC framework of vulnerability and considers the biophysical impacts of the hazard as well as a measure of its social and institutional dimensions. In this paper, we describe the incorporation of a system dynamics model inside EVA-INFRA that can quantify the cascading effects of disruption of any infrastructure component, leading to a more precise assessment of vulnerability.
Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
© 2015 Taylor & Francis. This is the author-manuscript version of the paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the publisher's website for access to the definitive, published version.
Applied Mathematics not elsewhere classified