Predictability of future index returns based on the 52-week high strategy

Abstract

In a landmark paper, George and Hwang (2004) show that a stock's 52-week high price largely explains the mom entum effect and that a strategy based on closeness to the 52-week high has better forecasting power for future returns than do momentum strategies. We find that the 52-week high strategy is unprofitable when applied to emerging markets indices, and that it is significantly less profitable than the corresponding momentum strategy. Overall the 52-week high effect is not as pervasive as the momentum effect.