Sea-Level Rise and Adaptation Responses for Coastal Construction: A Spatial-Temporal Decision Making Tool

Abstract

Most infrastructure, settlements and facilities are located near the coast and are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR), coastal erosion and storms. Continued population growth in low-lying coastal areas will increase vulnerability to these hazards. The impacts of SLR are highly variable across regions and difficult to predict over time and space. Principally, due to constraints on the adaptive capacities of coastal areas, SLR increases the challenge of achieving sustainable development in these areas in developing countries, and they are likely to be hit hardest. Generally speaking, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change are urgent issues, especially among developing countries. The dilemmas confronting decision makers are: how and when to adapt to SLR. The complexity can easily overwhelm the ability of decision makers to thoroughly investigate the outcomes of adaptation alternatives. Therefore developing and implementing effective adaptation options is crucial for future coastal development. However, in many cases, it is difficult to determine whether taking a specific action to prepare for SLR is justified, due to uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of impacts. By considering the uncertain nature of projected changes in climate and addressing these dilemmas, this paper intends to provide a dynamic model for a comprehensive vulnerability assessment of coastal areas to assist decision makers to identify and evaluate effective adaptation alternatives for reducing climate change impacts. To achieve this outcome, two modeling techniques are combined: (1) System Dynamics, and (2) Geographical Information Systems. A combination of these approaches would provide the potential to address temporal and spatial problems concurrently.