Responses of Economic Activity to Global Oil Market Shocks: A Comparative Analysis of Major Net Oil-Producing and -Consuming Countries
Embargoed until: 2019-06-01
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We argue that four channels drive oil price shocks during 1986M5–2013M1, namely the oil supply, aggregate demand, oil-specific demand and real exchange rates. Our findings are that oil price shocks driven by oil supply positively affect net oil-consumer countries faster than net oil-producer countries. Oil price shocks driven by aggregate demand are largely country-specific. Oil shocks driven by other demands influence net oil-producers faster than net oil-consumers negatively, and persistently mostly among net oil-producers. Other shocks have large negative effects on the industrial production of all countries, with responses appearing very quickly and persisting for at least a year.
© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Responses of Economic Activity to Global Oil Market Shocks: A Comparative Analysis of Major Net Oil-Producing and -Consuming Countries, Economic Record, Volume 93, Issue S1, Pages 70–85, 2017, which has been published in final form at DOI. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving (http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-828039.html)