A simulation of dementia epidemiology and resource use in Australia

View/ Open
File version
Version of Record (VoR)
Author(s)
Standfield, Lachlan B
Comans, Tracy
Scuffham, Paul
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2018
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Objectives: The number of people in the developed world who have dementia is predicted
to rise markedly. This study presents a validated predictive model to assist decision-makers to
determine this population’s future resource requirements and target scarce health and welfare
resources appropriately.
Methods: A novel individual patient discrete event simulation was developed to estimate the
future prevalence of dementia and related health and welfare resource use in Australia.
Results: When compared to other published results, the simulation generated valid estimates
of dementia prevalence and resource use. The analysis ...
View more >Objectives: The number of people in the developed world who have dementia is predicted to rise markedly. This study presents a validated predictive model to assist decision-makers to determine this population’s future resource requirements and target scarce health and welfare resources appropriately. Methods: A novel individual patient discrete event simulation was developed to estimate the future prevalence of dementia and related health and welfare resource use in Australia. Results: When compared to other published results, the simulation generated valid estimates of dementia prevalence and resource use. The analysis predicted 298,000, 387,000 and 928,000 persons in Australia will have dementia in 2011, 2020 and 2050, respectively. Health and welfare resource use increased markedly over the simulated time-horizon and was affected by capacity constraints. Conclusions: This simulation provides useful estimates of future demands on dementia-related services allowing the exploration of the effects of capacity constraints. Implications for public health: The model demonstrates that under-resourcing of residential aged care may lead to inappropriate and inefficient use of hospital resources. To avoid these capacity constraints it is predicted that the number of aged care beds for persons with dementia will need to increase more than threefold from 2011 to 2050.
View less >
View more >Objectives: The number of people in the developed world who have dementia is predicted to rise markedly. This study presents a validated predictive model to assist decision-makers to determine this population’s future resource requirements and target scarce health and welfare resources appropriately. Methods: A novel individual patient discrete event simulation was developed to estimate the future prevalence of dementia and related health and welfare resource use in Australia. Results: When compared to other published results, the simulation generated valid estimates of dementia prevalence and resource use. The analysis predicted 298,000, 387,000 and 928,000 persons in Australia will have dementia in 2011, 2020 and 2050, respectively. Health and welfare resource use increased markedly over the simulated time-horizon and was affected by capacity constraints. Conclusions: This simulation provides useful estimates of future demands on dementia-related services allowing the exploration of the effects of capacity constraints. Implications for public health: The model demonstrates that under-resourcing of residential aged care may lead to inappropriate and inefficient use of hospital resources. To avoid these capacity constraints it is predicted that the number of aged care beds for persons with dementia will need to increase more than threefold from 2011 to 2050.
View less >
Journal Title
Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health
Volume
42
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2017. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Note
This publication has been entered into Griffith Research Online as an Advanced Online Version.
Subject
Health services and systems
Public health
Applied economics
Policy and administration