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  • A simulation of dementia epidemiology and resource use in Australia

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    Author(s)
    Standfield, Lachlan B
    Comans, Tracy
    Scuffham, Paul
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Scuffham, Paul A.
    Year published
    2018
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    Abstract
    Objectives: The number of people in the developed world who have dementia is predicted to rise markedly. This study presents a validated predictive model to assist decision-makers to determine this population’s future resource requirements and target scarce health and welfare resources appropriately. Methods: A novel individual patient discrete event simulation was developed to estimate the future prevalence of dementia and related health and welfare resource use in Australia. Results: When compared to other published results, the simulation generated valid estimates of dementia prevalence and resource use. The analysis ...
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    Objectives: The number of people in the developed world who have dementia is predicted to rise markedly. This study presents a validated predictive model to assist decision-makers to determine this population’s future resource requirements and target scarce health and welfare resources appropriately. Methods: A novel individual patient discrete event simulation was developed to estimate the future prevalence of dementia and related health and welfare resource use in Australia. Results: When compared to other published results, the simulation generated valid estimates of dementia prevalence and resource use. The analysis predicted 298,000, 387,000 and 928,000 persons in Australia will have dementia in 2011, 2020 and 2050, respectively. Health and welfare resource use increased markedly over the simulated time-horizon and was affected by capacity constraints. Conclusions: This simulation provides useful estimates of future demands on dementia-related services allowing the exploration of the effects of capacity constraints. Implications for public health: The model demonstrates that under-resourcing of residential aged care may lead to inappropriate and inefficient use of hospital resources. To avoid these capacity constraints it is predicted that the number of aged care beds for persons with dementia will need to increase more than threefold from 2011 to 2050.
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    Journal Title
    Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health
    Volume
    42
    Issue
    3
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12700
    Copyright Statement
    © The Author(s) 2017. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
    Note
    This publication has been entered into Griffith Research Online as an Advanced Online Version.
    Subject
    Health services and systems
    Public health
    Applied economics
    Policy and administration
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/350060
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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