Cardiovascular risk prediction model for Omanis with type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Aim:

To date, no cardiovascular risk assessment tool has been developed specifically for any Arabian population including Omanis. This study aims to develop a suitable cardiovascular risk prediction model in the form of a statistical equation, for Omanis with type 2 diabetes.

Materials and methods:

A sample of 2039 patients with type 2 diabetes selected from primary care settings in the Aldakhiliyah Province of Oman were involved in a retrospective cohort study. All patients were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (in 2009–2010) and were followed up until: 1) their first cardiovascular event occurred; 2) the patient died, or 3) the end of the data collection in December 2015.

Results:

Among the total sample, 192 cardiovascular disease events were recorded within a mean follow-up period of 5.3-year. The 5-year probability of a cardiovascular event was given as 1 − 0.9991Exp∑XiBi, where Exp ∑XiBi (hazard ratio) = Exp (0.038 age + 0.052 DM duration + 0.102 HbA1c + 0.201 total cholesterol + 0.912 albuminuria [1 if present] + 0.166 hypertension [1 if present] + 0.005 BMI).

Conclusion:

The first cardiovascular risk prediction tool in the Arab world was developed in this study. It may be used to estimate the 5-year cardiovascular risk among Omanis with type 2 diabetes in order to plan patient management and preventive measures. However, further validation studies are required to determine the accuracy of the model.