Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia

Abstract

This article assesses the effect of population ageing on housing consumption and house prices. Using two approaches, this article finds that the ageing of the population may cause average real house prices to be between 3 and 27 per cent lower than they otherwise would be over the period 2008-2050. The first approach is an econometric estimation of house prices for Australia over the period 1980-2008. The second approach is a simulation of a life cycle-optimising model with representative overlapping generations.