Linking the Crime and Arrest Processes to Measure Variations in Individual Arrest Risk per Crime (Q)

Abstract

The magnitude and variation in the arrest risk per crime for individual offenders, termed Q,1 are fundamental to any characterization of crime and crime control. Obviously, Q has intrinsic value as an indicator of criminal justice performance, as well as a measure of the risk of detection faced by offenders. The variation in Q across offenders is also important as a methodological support to enable use of the widely available arrest data to make inferences about offending behavior. In particular, knowing Q is vital in attempts to estimate individual crime rates, λ, from such arrest data (Blumstein and Cohen 1979; Cohen 1986).