Development of a Risk Assessment Checklist for Juvenile Sexual Offenders: a Meta-Analytic Approach

Abstract

Over the last decade there has been a substantial research effort directed toward understanding recidivism and risk prediction among adult sex offenders. In contrast, the juvenile sex offender field has received much less empirical attention. Consequently, there are very few risk assessment instruments designed for use with young persons who have committed sexual offences. Available measures do not appear to take into account the higher rates of non-sexual recidivism typical of this population. This thesis aimed to identify risk factors for sexual and non-sexual recidivism among juvenile sex offenders (JSOs) and explore their utility in the context of a risk assessment instrument. In Study One, a meta-analysis was conducted on JSO research to examine risk factors for sexual recidivism. The meta-analysis involved 17 studies and 22 predictor constructs. Seven variables emerged as reliable predictors of sexual recidivism: an index sexual offence involving a stranger victim, a history of physical abuse in the offender's background, the presence of sexual deviance, a non-contact index sexual offence, sexually offending against a greater number of victims, a history of sexual offending, and a history of non-sexual offending. In Study Two, a meta-analysis was performed on JSO research to identify risk factors for non-sexual recidivism. The meta-analysis involved 14 studies and 19 predictor constructs. Six variables emerged as reliable predictors of non-sexual recidivism: a history of non-sexual offending, a history of sexual abuse (negative relationship), the presence of an antisocial orientation, an index sexual offence involving a child victim (negative relationship), a history of physical abuse in the offender's background, and the use of threats/force in the index sexual offence. Taken together, the two meta-analyses were able to identify risk factors specific to sexual recidivism (e.g., sexual deviance) and non-sexual recidivism (e.g., antisocial orientation) as well as risk factors common to both outcomes (e.g., a history of non-sexual offending). These studies therefore made an original and significant contribution to the understanding of recidivism among JSOs. Based upon the meta-analyses, Study Three involved the construction of a risk assessment checklist that could be easily scored from file information. The Juvenile Risk Assessment Checklist (J-RAC) contained 11 items based upon the most consistent operationalisations of the predictors that emerged from the meta-analyses. The J-RAC is unique in the JSO risk assessment field as it contains two scales designed to provide separate estimates of the risk of youth engaging in further sexual and non-sexual recidivism, respectively. The J-RAC was scored based on file information from 82 youth who had been found guilty of sexual offences and referred to a treatment service in Queensland, Australia. The majority of the items possessed good inter-rater reliabilities and the two scales both possessed high inter-rater reliabilities. An existing JSO risk assessment instrument, the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol Version 2 (J-SOAP-II; Prentky & Righthand, 2003), was also administered and the J-RAC possessed significant correlations with the majority of the J-SOAP-II scales. The J-RAC was also found to significantly discriminate between juveniles in detention and juveniles in the community, with those in detention found to be at higher risk on both scales. Thus, the reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the J-RAC was established. Consistent with current adult sex offender recidivism theory, the findings demonstrated the distinct roles of sexual deviance and antisocial orientation in the prediction of sexual and non-sexual recidivism of JSOs, respectively. The current thesis goes some way towards advancing a theory of juvenile sex offender recidivism by drawing upon the variables that emerged as reliable risk factors in the two meta-analyses. While the J-RAC could not yet be considered an actuarial instrument capable of assigning low, medium and high risk levels, the results of the research conducted in this thesis are encouraging. The utility of the J-RAC may be further enhanced through the aid of prospective research that incorporates substantial numbers of juvenile recidivists.