Exchange Rate Policy and the Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam, 1985-2009

Abstract

Since the mid-1980s, when Vietnam embarked on a transitional path to a market-oriented economic system, the country’s exchange rate regime has undergone major changes. To what extent have these changes facilitated the pursuit of the authorities’ main policy priorities? How appropriate are the current exchange rate setting arrangements, in light of domestic and international developments? These questions are of potential interest to researchers as well as to policy-makers not only in Vietnam, but also in other developing and transitional economies. Yet they are difficult to answer satisfactorily, partly because of the opaque nature of information about the Vietnamese authorities’ policy objectives and partly because of a relative scarcity of systematic and rigorous studies of these issues in the Vietnamese context. The purpose of this study is to help address this relative gap in the literature and to provide a better understanding of Vietnam’s exchange rate policy since the late 1980s and its consequences for macroeconomic performance and foreign exchange (forex) market development. In pursuing these objectives, this study employs three methods of analysis: (i) analytical review and synthesis; (ii) econometric analysis; and (iii) questionnaire survey. These different analytical techniques are applied in a complementary and integrated way to provide a broadly-based analysis of different but inter-related aspects of exchange rate policy and the forex market in Vietnam.