Incorporating Complexity and Uncertainty into Appraising Sustainability of Civil Infrastructure Systems: Hybrid Fuzzy Modelling Approach

Abstract

Sustainable development (SD) is a concept with multi-dimensional aspects. Through a pattern of resource use, SD aims to enhance both economic and social growth, while minimizing negative environmental impacts. Vital contributors to SD are the civil infrastructure systems (CIS) which have a huge impact on the spatial and temporal dimensions. Examining the performance sustainability of CIS requires an interdisciplinary approach involving engineering, environmental, economic and social sciences. This hard and complex process necessitates a proper assessment of the diverse conditions under which the CIS operates. As a result, many attempts have been made to develop sustainability performance assessment models for CIS. Nevertheless, all of these models have failed to provide a practical assessment model that has the capability to manage two key facts underpinning the sustainable development concept, namely, the interaction between the sustainability components, and the uncertainty problem that might occur at any different phase of the decision making process. The latter is due to the lack of either information or constraints in human thinking. This thesis presents a new assessment model that would overcome the limitations of previous assessment models. It provides a novel sustainability assessment model that has the capability to consider system complexity through modelling the interaction among the sustainability indicators (SIs), and integrating uncertainty analysis into the overall approach.