Computational Agent-Based Models of Offending: Assessing the Generative Sufficiency of Opportunity-Based Explanations of the Crime Event
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Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Stewart, Anna
Other Supervisors
Townsley, Michael
Year published
2012
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Show full item recordAbstract
This thesis demonstrates that agent-based modelling offers a viable compatriot
to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars,
that can be applied to explore the divide between micro-level criminological
theory and macro-level observations of crime; and in turn, aid in the
assessment of those theories which aim to describe the crime event.
The following overarching research question is addressed:
Are the micro-level mechanisms of the opportunity theories generatively sufficient
to explain macroscopic patterns commonly observed in the empirical
study of crime?
Drawing on the approach of generative social ...
View more >This thesis demonstrates that agent-based modelling offers a viable compatriot to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars, that can be applied to explore the divide between micro-level criminological theory and macro-level observations of crime; and in turn, aid in the assessment of those theories which aim to describe the crime event. The following overarching research question is addressed: Are the micro-level mechanisms of the opportunity theories generatively sufficient to explain macroscopic patterns commonly observed in the empirical study of crime? Drawing on the approach of generative social science (Epstein, 1999), this thesis presents a systematic assessment of the generative sufficiency of three distinct mechanisms of offender movement, target selection and learning derived from the routine activity approach (Cohen & Felson, 1979), rational choice perspective (Clarke, 1980; Cornish & Clarke, 1986) and crime pattern theory (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1978, 1981). An agent-based model of offending is presented, in which an artificial landscape is inhabited by both potential victims and offenders who behave according to several of the key propositions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective and crime pattern theory. Following a computational laboratory-based approach, for each hypothetical mechanism studied, control and experimental behaviours are developed to represent the absence or presence of a proposed mechanism within the virtual population.
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View more >This thesis demonstrates that agent-based modelling offers a viable compatriot to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars, that can be applied to explore the divide between micro-level criminological theory and macro-level observations of crime; and in turn, aid in the assessment of those theories which aim to describe the crime event. The following overarching research question is addressed: Are the micro-level mechanisms of the opportunity theories generatively sufficient to explain macroscopic patterns commonly observed in the empirical study of crime? Drawing on the approach of generative social science (Epstein, 1999), this thesis presents a systematic assessment of the generative sufficiency of three distinct mechanisms of offender movement, target selection and learning derived from the routine activity approach (Cohen & Felson, 1979), rational choice perspective (Clarke, 1980; Cornish & Clarke, 1986) and crime pattern theory (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1978, 1981). An agent-based model of offending is presented, in which an artificial landscape is inhabited by both potential victims and offenders who behave according to several of the key propositions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective and crime pattern theory. Following a computational laboratory-based approach, for each hypothetical mechanism studied, control and experimental behaviours are developed to represent the absence or presence of a proposed mechanism within the virtual population.
View less >
Thesis Type
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Degree Program
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice
Copyright Statement
The author owns the copyright in this thesis, unless stated otherwise.
Item Access Status
Public
Subject
Agent-based modelling
Criminological theory
Routine activity approach
Rational choice perspective
Crime pattern theory