Formal models of the crime event: Agent-based modelling in support of crime prevention
In order to be effective, crime prevention interventions rely on the identification, understanding and manipulation of causal mechanisms that result in crime. This chapter explores how simulation methods, specifically computational agent-based models, can aid in the specification, testing and refinement of crime event theories that underlie prospective situational crime prevention efforts before resource intensive implementation and evaluation are undertaken. The chapter begins by summarising key components of the agent-based method, and a number of its strengths relative to other analytical approaches applied in the analysis complex social systems. Subsequently, both explanatory and predictive applications of agent-based modelling in support of crime prevention are discussed. Furthermore, drawing on several examples from the field of environmental criminology, I propose that explanatory agent-based models offer unique means to explore the relationship between individual behaviour and observed aggregate crime phenomena—arguing that such insights generate important foundational knowledge for those who seek to understand crime events, and, in turn, devise effective interventions that aim to prevent them.
Crime Prevention in the 21st Century: Insightful Approaches for Crime Prevention Initiatives
Criminology not elsewhere classified