| dc.description.abstract | This paper presents a range of evidence supporting a sanguine view of the impact of
population ageing on a nation’s average living standards, with particular reference to
Australia. The evidence points to a small decrease in the growth of living standards
over the next few decades, and no decline in the average level of living standards.
There are essentially two reasons for this benign view, which is at odds with the dire
consequences of ageing predicted by media commentators and politicians. The first is
simply the power of compound growth in technical progress that is expected to be
more or less unaffected by population ageing. The second is the adjustments that will
occur in the behaviour of consumers, workers and firms, and in government policies,
that will ameliorate the impact of ageing on living standards. Several policy
implications flow from the assessment presented here. Pro-fertility policies, such as
the baby bonus in Australia, cannot be justified on the basis of the need to protect
living standards in the future, nor on the grounds of intergenerational equity.
Similarly, the case for boosting national saving through increased compulsory
superannuation, for example, is weak on the grounds of a response to population
ageing. There may be good reasons to boost fertility and national saving, but
population ageing is not one of them. | en_US |
