"The future ain't what it used to be": Coping with Change, Turbulence and Disasters in Tourism Research and Destination Management

Abstract

This paper is a synthesis of a range of contributions by the author (with others) to books, academic journals and conference proceedings over the last decade that have focused on issues relating to tourism forecasting, turbulence, entrepreneurism and disaster management. Specifically, the title is inspired by an earlier paper (Faulkner, 1993), elements of which are included in section 2. Section 2 also draws on Faulkner and Valerio (1995), in which the potential relevance of insights from Chaos Theory and the related complexity perspective to elements of tourism forecasting was first canvassed. Section 3 uses material from Faulkner and Russell (1997), while section 4 draws on Russell and Faulkner (1999) and Faulkner and Russell (2000). I am indebted to Ros Russell for the enthusiasm with which she has joined me in exploring applications of Chaos Theory to tourism research and, in particular, for her contribution to the examination of entrepreneurial behaviour. In the preparation of this paper, I am also indebted to Noel Scott, who has added a new dimension to the Chaos/Complexity perspective through his examination of innovative consumers. Finally, sections 5, 6 and 7 were based Faulkner (2001) and Faulkner and Vikulov (2001).