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dc.contributor.authorTurschwell, Mischa P
dc.contributor.authorStewart-Koster, Ben
dc.contributor.authorLeigh, Catherine
dc.contributor.authorPeterson, Erin E
dc.contributor.authorSheldon, Fran
dc.contributor.authorBalcombe, Stephen R
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-04T12:30:41Z
dc.date.available2019-07-04T12:30:41Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.issn1052-7613
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/aqc.2864
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/371622
dc.description.abstract1. Freshwater ecosystems and their associated biota are under increasing threats from multiple stressors including climate and land‐use change. The conservation of these ecosystems must be based on an integration of data including species physiological tolerances, the biotic and abiotic drivers of the distribution of populations, and demographic processes, to provide the comprehensive ecological information necessary for management. 2. This study used a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to synthesize research on northern river blackfish, a threatened species in the upper Condamine River, Australia, into a probabilistic framework capable of predicting the complex relationships that exist between environmental conditions and population success. This study tested how predicted air temperature scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080, and catchment restoration scenarios, would be expected to affect three indices of population success: adult abundance, juvenile abundance, and juvenile recruitment. 3. Compared with current climatic conditions, climate warming scenarios reduced the probability of future population success by between 0.4% and 1.6%. These shifts were almost completely offset, and even improved, when riparian zones were restored at the catchment scale, where changes ranged from an overall decrease of 0.2% to an increase of 1%. To achieve the highest probability of population success, the impacts of warming stream temperatures and the degradation of riparian zones must be mitigated. However, the model showed that there is still a possibility of complete population failure under a wide range of conditions, even when conditions appear to be suitable. 4. To maximize the future population success of river blackfish we recommend targeting the restoration of hydrologically active catchment areas where grazing strongly influences stream biota. The use of a BBN allowed the combination of multiple sources of information to solve complex ecological problems, including how multiple stressors may affect threatened freshwater species.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWiley Online
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom575
dc.relation.ispartofpageto586
dc.relation.ispartofjournalAquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems
dc.relation.ispartofvolume28
dc.subject.fieldofresearchMarine and Estuarine Ecology (incl. Marine Ichthyology)
dc.subject.fieldofresearchAgricultural and Veterinary Sciences
dc.subject.fieldofresearchEnvironmental Sciences
dc.subject.fieldofresearchBiological Sciences
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode060205
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode07
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode05
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode06
dc.titleRiparian restoration offsets predicted population consequences of climate warming in a threatened headwater fish
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
gro.facultyGriffith Sciences, School of Environment and Science
gro.description.notepublicThis publication has been entered into Griffith Research Online as an Advanced Online Version.
gro.hasfulltextNo Full Text
gro.griffith.authorBalcombe, Stephen R.
gro.griffith.authorSheldon, Fran
gro.griffith.authorLeigh, Catherine
gro.griffith.authorStewart-Koster, Ben D.
gro.griffith.authorTurschwell, Mischa P.


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