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  • The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: A mathematical model

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    Author(s)
    Manyema, Mercy
    Veerman, Lennert J
    Chola, Lumbwe
    Tugendhaft, Aviva
    Sartorius, Benn
    Labadarios, Demetre
    Hofman, Karen J
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Veerman, Lennert L.
    Year published
    2014
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    Abstract
    Background/Objectives: The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugarsweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa. Methods: A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition ...
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    Background/Objectives: The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugarsweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa. Methods: A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. Results: A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%–7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%–4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197–411 759). Conclusions: Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity.
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    Journal Title
    PLoS One
    Volume
    9
    Issue
    8
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0105287
    Copyright Statement
    © 2014 Manyema et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
    Subject
    Health economics
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/373821
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    • Journal articles

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