Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment
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Author(s)
Danaei, Goodarz
Lu, Yuan
Singh, Gitanjali M
Carnahan, Emily
Stevens, Gretchen A
Cowan, Melanie J
Farzadfar, Farshad
Lin, John K
Finucane, Mariel M
Rao, Mayuree
Khang, Young-Ho
Riley, Leanne M
Mozaff, Dariush
Lim, Stephen S
Ezzati, Majid
Aamodt, Geir
Abdeen, Ziad
Abdella, Nabila A
Abdul Rahim, Hanan F
Addo, Juliet
Aekplakorn, Wichai
Afifi, Mustafa M
Agabiti-Rosei, Enrico
Salinas, Carlos A Aguilar
Agyemang, Charles
Ali, Mohammed K
Ali, Mohamed M
Al-Nsour, Mohannad
Al-Nuaim, Abdul R
Ambady, Ramachandran
Di Angelantonio, Emanuele
Aro, Pertti
Azizi, Fereidoun
Babu, Bontha V
Bahalim, Adil N
Barbagallo, Carlo M
Barbieri, Marco A
Barcelo, Alberto
Barreto, Sandhi M
Barros, Henrique
Bautista, Leonelo E
Benetos, Athanase
Bjerregaard, Peter
Bjoerkelund, Cecilia
Bo, Simona
Bobak, Martin
Bonora, Enzo
Botana, Manuel A
Bovet, Pascal
Breckenkamp, Juergen
Breteler, Monique M
Broda, Grazyna
Brown, Ian J
Bursztyn, Michael
de Leon, Antonio Cabrera
Campos, Hannia
Cappuccio, Francesco P
Capuano, Vincenzo
Casiglia, Edoardo
Castellano, Maurizio
Castetbon, Katia
Cea, Luis
Chang, Chih-Jen
Chaouki, Noureddine
Chatterji, Somnath
Chen, Chien-Jen
Chen, Zhengming
Choi, Jin-Su
Chua, Lily
Cifkova, Renata
Cobiac, Linda J
Cooper, Richard S
Corsi, Anna Maria
Costanza, Michael C
Craig, Cora L
Dankner, Rachel S
Dastgiri, Saeed
Delgado, Elias
Dinc, Gonul
Doi, Yasufumi
Dong, Guang-Hui
Dorsi, Eleonora
Dragano, Nico
Drewnowski, Adam
Eggertsen, Robert
Elliott, Paul
Engeland, Anders
Erem, Cihangir
Esteghamati, Alireza
Fall, Caroline HD
Fan, Jian-Gao
Ferreccio, Catterina
Fezeu, Leopold
Firmo, Joselia O
Florez, Hermes J
Fornes, Nelida S
Fowkes, F Gerry R
Franceschini, Guido
Frisk, Fredrik
Fuchs, Flavio D
Fuller, Eva L
Getz, Linn
Giampaoli, Simona
Gomez, Luis F
Gomez-Zumaquero, Juan M
Graff-Iversen, Sidsel
Grant, Janet F
Carvajal, Ramiro Guerrero
Gulliford, Martin C
Gupta, Rajeev
Gupta, Prakash C
Gureje, Oye
Gutierrez, Hialy R
Hansen, Tine W
Hata, Jun
He, Jiang
Heim, Noor
Heinrich, Joachim
Hemmingsson, Tomas
Hennis, Anselm
Herman, William H
Herrera, Victor M
Ho, Suzanne
Holdsworth, Michelle
Frisman, Gunilla Hollman
Hopman, Wilma M
Hussain, Akhtar
Husseini, Abdullatif
Ibrahim, M Mohsen
Ikeda, Nayu
Jacobsen, Bjarne K
Jaddou, Hashem Y
Jafar, Tazeen H
Janghorbani, Mohsen
Jasienska, Grazyna
Joffres, Michel R
Jonas, Jost B
Kadiki, Othman A
Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra
Kamadjeu, Raoul M
Kaptoge, Stephen
Karalis, Ioannis
Kastarinen, Mika J
Katz, Joanne
Keinan-Boker, Lital
Kelly, Paul
Khalilzadeh, Omid
Kiechl, Stefan
Kim, Ki Woong
Kiyohara, Yutaka
Kobayashi, Junji
Krause, Maressa P
Kubinova, Ruzena
Kurjata, Pawel
Kusuma, Yadlapalli S
Lam, Tai H
Langhammer, Arnulf
Lawes, Carlene MM
Le, Cai
Lee, Jeannette
Levy-Marchal, Claire
Lewington, Sarah
Li, Yanping
Li, Yuqiu
Lim, TO
Lin, Xu
Lin, Cheng-Chieh
Lin, Hsien-Ho
Lind, Lars
Lissner, Lauren
Liu, Xiaoqing
Lopez-Jaramillo, Patricio
Lorbeer, Roberto
Ma, Guansheng
Ma, Stefan
Macia, Francesc
MacLean, David R
Maggi, Stefania
Magliano, Dianna J
Makdisse, Marcia
Mancia, Giuseppe
Mannami, Toshifumi
Marques-Vidal, Pedro
Mbanya, Jean Claude N
McFarlane-Anderson, Norma
Miccoli, Roberto
Miettola, Juhani
Minh, Hoang V
Miquel, Juan F
Miranda, J Jaime
Mohamed, Mostafa K
Mohan, V
Mohanna, Salim
Mokdad, Ali
Mollentze, Willem F
Morales, Dante D
Morgan, Karen
Muiesan, Lorenza M
Muntoni, Sergio
Nabipour, Iraj
Nakagami, Tomoko
Nangia, Vinay
Nemesure, Barbara
Neovius, Martin
Nerhus, Kjersti A
Nervi, Flavio
Neuhauser, Hannelore
Nguyen, Minh
Ninomiya, Toshiharu
Noale, Marianna
Oh, Sang W
Ohkubo, Takayoshi
Olivieri, Oliviero
Oenal, Ayse Emel
Onat, Altan
Orostegui, Myriam
Ouedraogo, Hermann
Pan, Wen-Harn
Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B
Panza, Francesco
Park, Yongsoo
Passos, Valeria MA
Pednekar, Mangesh S
Pelizzari, Pamela M
Peres, Marco A
Perez, Cynthia
Perez-Fernandez, Roman
Pichardo, Rafael
Phua, Hwee Pin
Pistelli, Francesco
Plans, Pedro
Polakowska, Maria
Poulter, Neil
Prabhakaran, Dorairaj
Qiao, Qing
Rafiei, Masoud
Raitakari, Olli T
Ramos, Luiz R
Rampal, Sanjay
Rampal, Lekhraj
Rasmussen, Finn
Reddy, Kanala KR
Redon, Josep
Revilla, Luis
Reyes-Garcia, Victoria
Roaeid, Ragab B
Robinson, Carolyn A
Rodriguez-Artalejo, Fernando
Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba
Ronkainen, Kimmo
Rosero-Bixby, Luis
Roth, Gregory A
Sachdev, Harshpal S
Sanchez, Jose R
Sanisoglu, Selim Y
Sans, Susana
Sarraf-Zadegan, Nizal
Scazufca, Marcia
Schaan, Beatriz D
Schapochnik, Norberto
Schelleman, Hedi
Schneider, Ione JC
Schooling, C Mary
Schwarz, Bernhard
Sekuri, Cevad
Sereday, Martha S
Serra-Majem, Lluis
Shaw, Jonathan
Shera, Abdul S
Shi, Zumin
Shiri, Rahman
Shu, Xiao Ou
Silva, Diego Augusto Santos
Silva, Egle
Simons, Leon A
Smith, Margaret
Soederberg, Stefan
Soebardi, Suharko
Solfrizzi, Vincenzo
Sonestedt, Emily
Soysal, Ahmet
Stattin, Paer
Stein, Aryeh D
Stergiou, George S
Stessman, Jochanan
Sudo, Akihiro
Suka, Machi
Sundh, Valter
Sundquist, Kristina
Sundstroem, Johan
Swai, Andrew B
Tai, E Shyong
Tambs, Kristian
Tesfaye, Fikru
Thomas, George N
Thorogood, Margaret
Tilvis, Reijo S
Tobias, Martin
Torheim, Liv E
Trenkwalder, Peter
Tuomilehto, Jaakko O
Tur, Josep A
Tzourio, Christophe
Uhernik, Ana I
Ukoli, Flora A
Unwin, Nigel
Hoorn, Stephen Vander
Vanderpump, Mark P
Varo, Jose Javier
Veierod, Marit B
Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo
Verschuren, Monique
Viet, Lucie
Villalpando, Salvador
Vioque, Jesus
Vollenweider, Peter
Volpato, Stefano
Wang, Ningli
Wang, Ya X
Ward, Mark
Waspadji, Sarwono
Welin, Lennart X
Whitlock, Gary
Wilhelmsen, Lars
Willeit, Johann
Woodward, Mark
Wormser, David
Xavier, Andre J
Xu, Fei
Xu, Liang
Yamamoto, Akira
Yang, Gonghuan
Yang, Xiaoguang
Yeh, Li-Chia
Yoon, Jin-Sang
You, Qisheng
Yu, Zhijie
Zhang, Jian
Zhang, Lei
Zheng, Wei
Zhou, Maigeng
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2014
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Background:
High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010.
Methods:
We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific ...
View more >Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1–11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6–7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.
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View more >Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1–11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6–7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.
View less >
Journal Title
The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology
Volume
2
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© 2014 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.
Subject
Medical biochemistry and metabolomics
Clinical sciences
Dentistry not elsewhere classified