Long-term policy evaluation: Application of a new robust decision framework for Iran's energy exports security

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Author(s)
Alipour, Mohammad
Hafezi, Reza
Ervural, Bilal
Amin, Mohamad
Kabak, Ozgur
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2018
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
The objective of this research is to assess long-term energy security policy under uncertain environment. Uncertainty is an integral part of the energy policy analysis in long-term planning, in particular for energy-exporting countries seeking to secure sustainable export revenues. This study proposes a framework to evaluate energy export policy at the strategic level by addressing inherent uncertainties exist in energy-exporting countries. Seven criteria (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and robustness) are considered to appraise the identified energy export security alternatives. A new ...
View more >The objective of this research is to assess long-term energy security policy under uncertain environment. Uncertainty is an integral part of the energy policy analysis in long-term planning, in particular for energy-exporting countries seeking to secure sustainable export revenues. This study proposes a framework to evaluate energy export policy at the strategic level by addressing inherent uncertainties exist in energy-exporting countries. Seven criteria (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and robustness) are considered to appraise the identified energy export security alternatives. A new hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model is proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets suitable for uncertain judgments that integrates Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) and the Cumulative Belief Degree (CBD) methods. CBD, which is strengthened by IFAHP in determining criteria weights, allows experts to freely evaluate alternatives in various formats and can successfully deal with missing judgments by experts in case of doubt, eligibility or lack of information. Scenario planning is also incorporated into the decision-making process by determining four realistic projections. As a case study, the proposed framework is applied to analyze Iran's energy export security. Results suggest that natural gas has the highest export priority while petroleum products (excluding gasoline) stand last in all scenarios.
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View more >The objective of this research is to assess long-term energy security policy under uncertain environment. Uncertainty is an integral part of the energy policy analysis in long-term planning, in particular for energy-exporting countries seeking to secure sustainable export revenues. This study proposes a framework to evaluate energy export policy at the strategic level by addressing inherent uncertainties exist in energy-exporting countries. Seven criteria (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and robustness) are considered to appraise the identified energy export security alternatives. A new hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model is proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets suitable for uncertain judgments that integrates Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) and the Cumulative Belief Degree (CBD) methods. CBD, which is strengthened by IFAHP in determining criteria weights, allows experts to freely evaluate alternatives in various formats and can successfully deal with missing judgments by experts in case of doubt, eligibility or lack of information. Scenario planning is also incorporated into the decision-making process by determining four realistic projections. As a case study, the proposed framework is applied to analyze Iran's energy export security. Results suggest that natural gas has the highest export priority while petroleum products (excluding gasoline) stand last in all scenarios.
View less >
Journal Title
Energy
Volume
157
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.
Subject
Mechanical Engineering not elsewhere classified
Mechanical Engineering
Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy
Interdisciplinary Engineering