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  • Long-term policy evaluation: Application of a new robust decision framework for Iran's energy exports security

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    Author(s)
    Alipour, Mohammad
    Hafezi, Reza
    Ervural, Bilal
    Amin, Mohamad
    Kabak, Ozgur
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Alipour, Mohammad
    Year published
    2018
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    Abstract
    The objective of this research is to assess long-term energy security policy under uncertain environment. Uncertainty is an integral part of the energy policy analysis in long-term planning, in particular for energy-exporting countries seeking to secure sustainable export revenues. This study proposes a framework to evaluate energy export policy at the strategic level by addressing inherent uncertainties exist in energy-exporting countries. Seven criteria (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and robustness) are considered to appraise the identified energy export security alternatives. A new ...
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    The objective of this research is to assess long-term energy security policy under uncertain environment. Uncertainty is an integral part of the energy policy analysis in long-term planning, in particular for energy-exporting countries seeking to secure sustainable export revenues. This study proposes a framework to evaluate energy export policy at the strategic level by addressing inherent uncertainties exist in energy-exporting countries. Seven criteria (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and robustness) are considered to appraise the identified energy export security alternatives. A new hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model is proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets suitable for uncertain judgments that integrates Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) and the Cumulative Belief Degree (CBD) methods. CBD, which is strengthened by IFAHP in determining criteria weights, allows experts to freely evaluate alternatives in various formats and can successfully deal with missing judgments by experts in case of doubt, eligibility or lack of information. Scenario planning is also incorporated into the decision-making process by determining four realistic projections. As a case study, the proposed framework is applied to analyze Iran's energy export security. Results suggest that natural gas has the highest export priority while petroleum products (excluding gasoline) stand last in all scenarios.
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    Journal Title
    Energy
    Volume
    157
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.176
    Copyright Statement
    © 2018 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.
    Subject
    Mechanical Engineering not elsewhere classified
    Mechanical Engineering
    Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy
    Interdisciplinary Engineering
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/381934
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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