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dc.contributor.authorWasserman, M
dc.contributor.authorLucas, A
dc.contributor.authorJones, D
dc.contributor.authorWilson, M
dc.contributor.authorHilton, B
dc.contributor.authorVyse, A
dc.contributor.authorMadhava, H
dc.contributor.authorBrogan, A
dc.contributor.authorSlack, M
dc.contributor.authorFarkouh, R
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-02T03:21:10Z
dc.date.available2019-08-02T03:21:10Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.issn0950-2688
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/S095026881800198X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/383138
dc.description.abstractThe 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been part of routine immunisation in a 2 + 1 schedule (two primary infant doses and one booster during the second year of life) in the UK since 2010. Recently, the UK's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation recommended changing to a 1 + 1 schedule while conceding that this will increase disease burden; however, uncertainty remains on how much pneumococcal burden – including invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and non-invasive disease – will increase. We built a dynamic transmission model to investigate this question. The model predicted that a 1 + 1 schedule would incur 8777–27 807 additional cases of disease and 241–743 more deaths over 5 years. Serotype 19A caused 55–71% of incremental IPD cases. Scenario analyses showed that booster dose adherence, effectiveness against carriage and waning in a 1 + 1 schedule had the most influence on resurgence of disease. Based on the model assumptions, switching to a 1 + 1 schedule will substantially increase disease burden. The results likely are conservative since they are based on relatively low vaccine-type pneumococcal transmission, a paradigm that has been called into question by data demonstrating an increase of IPD due to several vaccine serotypes during the last surveillance year available.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherCambridge University Press
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom1797
dc.relation.ispartofpageto1806
dc.relation.ispartofissue14
dc.relation.ispartofjournalEpidemiology and Infection
dc.relation.ispartofvolume146
dc.subject.fieldofresearchHealth services and systems
dc.subject.fieldofresearchPublic health
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode4203
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode4206
dc.titleDynamic transmission modelling to address intant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule modifications in the UK
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
dcterms.licensehttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
dc.description.versionVersion of Record (VoR)
gro.rights.copyright© Cambridge University Press 2018. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence , which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the same Creative Commons licence is included and the original work is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.
gro.hasfulltextFull Text
gro.griffith.authorSlack, Mary P.


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