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  • Tourism and the Output Gap

    Author(s)
    Carmignani, Fabrizio
    Moyle, Char-lee
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Carmignani, Fabrizio
    Year published
    2019
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This article investigates the impact of tourism arrivals on a host country’s output gap, defined as the difference between actual gross domestic product (GDP) and trend GDP. Using panel data methods that account for the potential endogeneity of tourism and the business cycle, and the possible nonstationarity of tourism arrivals, the results show that an increase in tourism arrivals significantly improves the output gap of the host country. Quantitatively, a 10% increase in arrivals in a given year improves the output gap in that year by approximately 0.2% of actual GDP. There is, however, no evidence of a lagged effect of ...
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    This article investigates the impact of tourism arrivals on a host country’s output gap, defined as the difference between actual gross domestic product (GDP) and trend GDP. Using panel data methods that account for the potential endogeneity of tourism and the business cycle, and the possible nonstationarity of tourism arrivals, the results show that an increase in tourism arrivals significantly improves the output gap of the host country. Quantitatively, a 10% increase in arrivals in a given year improves the output gap in that year by approximately 0.2% of actual GDP. There is, however, no evidence of a lagged effect of tourism. Based on this empirical evidence, the article concludes that tourism is a mechanism through which the domestic economy can take advantage of positive shocks happening elsewhere in the world. In this sense, tourism can contribute to the synchronization of business cycles between destination and origin countries.
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    Journal Title
    JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH
    Volume
    58
    Issue
    4
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518769760
    Subject
    Commercial services
    Marketing
    Tourism
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/384250
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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