Agricultural commodity futures trading based on cross-country rolling quantile return signals
Author(s)
Jiang, Huayun
Todorova, Neda
Roca, Eduardo
Su, Jen-Je
Year published
2019
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
This paper formulates and examines a new type of bivariate time series trading strategy based on signals generated from cross-country quantiles of return distributions. We conduct rolling quantile trading strategies separately in the U.S. and Chinese futures markets for soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar over very short (daily, intraday and overnight) holding periods. Overall, we find that these practical strategies outperform various benchmarks and there is a large profit potential when trades follow quantile-based signals rather than focusing on the median only. The results highlight the value of cross-country trading strategies ...
View more >This paper formulates and examines a new type of bivariate time series trading strategy based on signals generated from cross-country quantiles of return distributions. We conduct rolling quantile trading strategies separately in the U.S. and Chinese futures markets for soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar over very short (daily, intraday and overnight) holding periods. Overall, we find that these practical strategies outperform various benchmarks and there is a large profit potential when trades follow quantile-based signals rather than focusing on the median only. The results highlight the value of cross-country trading strategies and the harnessing of information from different parts of the return distributions which have so far been neglected.
View less >
View more >This paper formulates and examines a new type of bivariate time series trading strategy based on signals generated from cross-country quantiles of return distributions. We conduct rolling quantile trading strategies separately in the U.S. and Chinese futures markets for soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar over very short (daily, intraday and overnight) holding periods. Overall, we find that these practical strategies outperform various benchmarks and there is a large profit potential when trades follow quantile-based signals rather than focusing on the median only. The results highlight the value of cross-country trading strategies and the harnessing of information from different parts of the return distributions which have so far been neglected.
View less >
Journal Title
Quantitative Finance
Subject
Banking, finance and investment