Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016
Author(s)
Naghavi, Mohsen
Marczak, Laurie B
Kutz, Michael
Shackelford, Katya Anne
Arora, Megha
Miller-Petrie, Molly
Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine
Akseer, Nadia
Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M
Alam, Khurshid
Alghnam, Suliman A
Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
Aremu, Olatunde
Arora, Amit
Asadi-Lari, Mohsen
Assadi, Reza
Atey, Tesfay Mehari
Avila-Burgos, Leticia
Awasthi, Ashish
Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala
Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn
Barnighausen, Till Winfried
Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
Behzadifar, Masoud
Behzadifar, Meysam
Bennett, James R
Bhalla, Ashish
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A
Bilal, Arebu Issa
Borges, Guilherme
Borschmann, Rohan
Brazinova, Alexandra
Rincon, Julio Cesar Campuzano
Carvalho, Felix
Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A
Dandona, Lalit
Dandona, Rakhi
Dargan, Paul I
De Leo, Diego
Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda
Ding, Eric L
Huyen, Phuc Do
Doku, David Teye
Doyle, Kerrie E
Driscoll, TimRobert
Edessa, Dumessa
El-Khatib, Ziad
Endries, Aman Yesuf
Esteghamati, Alireza
Faro, Andre
Farzadfar, Farshad
Feigin, Valery L
Fischer, Florian
Foreman, Kyle J
Franklin, Richard Charles
Fullman, Nancy
Futran, Neal D
Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde
Gutierrez, Reyna Alma
Hafezi-Nejad, Nima
Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast
Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa
Haro, Josep Maria
Hassen, Hamid Yimam
Hawley, Caitlin
Hendrie, Delia
Hijar, Martha
Hu, Guoqing
Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen
Jakovljevic, Mihajlo
James, Spencer L
Jayaraman, Sudha
Jonas, Jost B
Kahsay, Amaha
Kasaeian, Amir
Keiyoro, Peter Njenga
Khader, Yousef
Khalil, Ibrahim A
Khang, Young-Ho
Khubchandani, Jagdish
Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad
Kieling, Christian
Kim, Yun Jin
Kosen, Soewarta
Krohn, Kristopher J
Kumar, G Anil
Lami, Faris Hasan
Lansingh, Van C
Larson, Heidi Jane
Linn, Shai
Lunevicius, Raimundas
Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy
Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy
Malekzadeh, Reza
Malta, Deborah Carvalho
Mason-Jones, Amanda J
Matzopoulos, Richard
Memiah, Peter TN
Mendoza, Walter
Meretoja, Tuomo J
Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane
Miller, Ted R
Mohammed, Shafiu
Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
Mori, Rintaro
Nand, Devina
Cuong, Tat Nguyen
Quyen, Le Nguyen
Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini
Ogbo, Felix Akpojene
Olagunju, Andrew T
Patton, George C
Phillips, Michael R
Polinder, Suzanne
Pourmalek, Farshad
Qorbani, Mostafa
Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin
Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa
Rahman, Mahfuzar
Rai, Rajesh Kumar
Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal
Rawaf, David Laith
Rawaf, Salman
Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali
Safdarian, Mahdi
Safiri, Saeid
Sagar, Rajesh
Salama, Joseph S
Sanabria, Juan
Milicevic, Milena M Santric
Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo
Sartorius, Benn
Satpathy, Maheswar
Schwebel, David C
Seedat, Soraya
Sepanlou, Sadaf G
Shaikh, Masood Ali
Sharew, Nigussie Tadesse
Shiue, Ivy
Singh, Jasvinder A
Sisay, Mekonnen
Skirbekk, Vegard
Soares Filho, Adauto Martins
Stein, Dan J
Stokes, Mark Andrew
Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale
Swaroop, Mamta
Sykes, Bryan L
Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael
Tadese, Fentaw
Bach, Xuan Tran
Tung, Thanh Tran
Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna
Vasankari, Tommi Juhani
Vlassov, Vasily
Werdecker, Andrea
Ye, Pengpeng
Yip, Paul
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Younis, Mustafa Z
Zaidi, Zoubida
Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed
Hay, Simon I
Lim, Stephen S
Lopez, Alan D
Mokdad, Ali H
Vos, Theo
Murray, Christopher JL
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2018
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Importance Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the ...
View more >Importance Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Exposures Firearm ownership and access. Main Outcomes and Measures Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Results Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (−0.2% [95% UI, −0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). Conclusions and Relevance This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
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View more >Importance Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Exposures Firearm ownership and access. Main Outcomes and Measures Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Results Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (−0.2% [95% UI, −0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). Conclusions and Relevance This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
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Journal Title
JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association
Volume
320
Issue
8
Subject
Biomedical and clinical sciences