False Rape Allegations: Do they Lead to a Wrongful Conviction Following the Indictment of an Innocent Defendant?

Abstract

False rape allegations are a serious concern. However, the role of false rape allegations on wrongful convictions is relatively unknown. Here, we examine the impact of false rape allegations on cases outcomes involving factually innocent defendants. The Preventing Wrongful Convictions Project compared “near misses,” cases where charges against factually innocent defendants were dismissed following indictment, to wrongful convictions. Using a subsample of 207 sexual assault cases, we employed bivariate and multivariate analysis to better understand the impact of false rape allegations on case outcome. False rape allegations accounted for 4% of wrongful convictions in the sample and 45.6% of near misses. False allegations were more common among cases involving white and better-educated defendants. The presence of a false rape allegation contributed to a 10 times greater likelihood of a case ending in a near miss than a wrongful conviction.