The Temporal (In)Stability of the Unemployment and Crime Relationship
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Author(s)
Ha, Olivia K
Andresen, Martin A
Davies, Garth
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2020
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The complex relationship between crime and economic change has had a long pedigree in criminological research. This article considers the temporal stability of the Cantor and Land model of unemployment and crime using a decomposition model of Canadian provinces, 1981 to 2009. We include multiple economic measures for a more comprehensive representation of economic performance, allowing for the estimates of long- and short-run unemployment effects to vary over time. We undertake this analysis considering 12 crime types, finding strong support for the Cantor and Land model in both property and violent crimes. However, in a ...
View more >The complex relationship between crime and economic change has had a long pedigree in criminological research. This article considers the temporal stability of the Cantor and Land model of unemployment and crime using a decomposition model of Canadian provinces, 1981 to 2009. We include multiple economic measures for a more comprehensive representation of economic performance, allowing for the estimates of long- and short-run unemployment effects to vary over time. We undertake this analysis considering 12 crime types, finding strong support for the Cantor and Land model in both property and violent crimes. However, in a number of cases, we find that there is significant variation of these relationships over time. This result implies that support for this model depends on the time period analyzed and that any policy derived from this model of unemployment and crime is time-period dependent.
View less >
View more >The complex relationship between crime and economic change has had a long pedigree in criminological research. This article considers the temporal stability of the Cantor and Land model of unemployment and crime using a decomposition model of Canadian provinces, 1981 to 2009. We include multiple economic measures for a more comprehensive representation of economic performance, allowing for the estimates of long- and short-run unemployment effects to vary over time. We undertake this analysis considering 12 crime types, finding strong support for the Cantor and Land model in both property and violent crimes. However, in a number of cases, we find that there is significant variation of these relationships over time. This result implies that support for this model depends on the time period analyzed and that any policy derived from this model of unemployment and crime is time-period dependent.
View less >
Journal Title
International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology
Note
This publication has been entered into Griffith Research Online as an Advanced Online Version
Subject
Criminology
crime
decomposition model
panel data
temporal stability
unemployment