2013-03: Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers (Working paper)

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Author(s)
Carmignani, Fabrizio
Kler, Parvinder
Year published
2013
Metadata
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We apply panel estimation methods to test how the incidence of war in neighbourhood countries affects the incidence of war in the domestic country. We find positive and significant evidence of "spatial conflict spillover": higher incidence in the neighbourhood increases domestic country involvement in war. We also provide some new evidence on other correlates of war. Particularly interesting are the results concerning the effect of democracy. An increase in the level of democracy increases the incidence of interstate war and reduces the incidence of civil war. However, this latter effect kicks in only past a certain initial ...
View more >We apply panel estimation methods to test how the incidence of war in neighbourhood countries affects the incidence of war in the domestic country. We find positive and significant evidence of "spatial conflict spillover": higher incidence in the neighbourhood increases domestic country involvement in war. We also provide some new evidence on other correlates of war. Particularly interesting are the results concerning the effect of democracy. An increase in the level of democracy increases the incidence of interstate war and reduces the incidence of civil war. However, this latter effect kicks in only past a certain initial level of democracy.
View less >
View more >We apply panel estimation methods to test how the incidence of war in neighbourhood countries affects the incidence of war in the domestic country. We find positive and significant evidence of "spatial conflict spillover": higher incidence in the neighbourhood increases domestic country involvement in war. We also provide some new evidence on other correlates of war. Particularly interesting are the results concerning the effect of democracy. An increase in the level of democracy increases the incidence of interstate war and reduces the incidence of civil war. However, this latter effect kicks in only past a certain initial level of democracy.
View less >
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Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).
Note
Economics and Business Statistics
Subject
D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
C23 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
N40 - Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: General, International, or Comparative
Civil war
interstate war
neighbourhood effect
spillover
panel models