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  • 2013-03: Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers (Working paper)

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    Author(s)
    Carmignani, Fabrizio
    Kler, Parvinder
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Carmignani, Fabrizio
    Kler, Parvinder S.
    Year published
    2013
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    Abstract
    We apply panel estimation methods to test how the incidence of war in neighbourhood countries affects the incidence of war in the domestic country. We find positive and significant evidence of "spatial conflict spillover": higher incidence in the neighbourhood increases domestic country involvement in war. We also provide some new evidence on other correlates of war. Particularly interesting are the results concerning the effect of democracy. An increase in the level of democracy increases the incidence of interstate war and reduces the incidence of civil war. However, this latter effect kicks in only past a certain initial ...
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    We apply panel estimation methods to test how the incidence of war in neighbourhood countries affects the incidence of war in the domestic country. We find positive and significant evidence of "spatial conflict spillover": higher incidence in the neighbourhood increases domestic country involvement in war. We also provide some new evidence on other correlates of war. Particularly interesting are the results concerning the effect of democracy. An increase in the level of democracy increases the incidence of interstate war and reduces the incidence of civil war. However, this latter effect kicks in only past a certain initial level of democracy.
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    Copyright Statement
    Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).
    Note
    Economics and Business Statistics
    Subject
    D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
    C23 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
    N40 - Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: General, International, or Comparative
    Civil war
    interstate war
    neighbourhood effect
    spillover
    panel models
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/390396
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