2010-01: Cancer and economic growth in an aging population: estimating the impact for Australia (Working paper)

Abstract

This paper uses Johansen multivariate cointegration analysis to estimate the effect of cancer on economic growth in Australia from 1907-2006. The results show that there is a long run cointegrating relationship between GDP per capita, total cancer mortality rates and the age dependency ratio. An increase of 1% in total cancer death rates will result in 1.6% decrease in GDP. The results also indicate that a 1% increase in the dependency ratio leads to a 0.9% decrease in GDP. Both GDP and cancer are influenced by changes in the long run relationship, indicating that there is two-way causation between them.